The Emir of Qatar this week walked away with a publicity coup on the Democratic Republic of Congo crisis, even though the back channels were mostly American, employing a carrot and stick approach to conflict.
The EastAfrican learnt that Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani managed to bring together two foes, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Felix Tshisekedi of the DRC, by leveraging on his contacts in the Great Lakes, but riding on pressure from Washington, which threatened more sanctions on both sides.
And yet even after agreeing on a ceasefire, M23 rebels took control of the town of Walikale in North Kivu, potentially handing Kagame a deniability he needs this time.
According to the M23/AFC leader, the rebels are not concerned by the Doha meeting where President Tshisekedi and Kagame met for the first time in more than a year.
“What happened in Doha, as long as we don’t know the details, and as long as it doesn’t solve our problems, we’ll say it doesn’t concern us,” declared Corneille Nangaa, the leader of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC), the political wing of M23.
In North and South Kivu, the M23/AFC leader said the rebel movement is still open to direct dialogue with Kinshasa government.
“We demand that if there is a dialogue, it be a direct dialogue,” he said. “We are keen on any peaceful solution.”
Experts told The EastAfrican, the bite-and-blow tactic would help the rebel movement continue their conquest, while putting pressure on the DRC to come to the table.
Yet these events came as Luanda prepared to host a meeting of Congolese government officials with M23 rebels, which failed to happen as rebels gave it a wide berth. Doha’s schedule appeared to surprise Angola, according to Tete Antonio, Angola’s Foreign Minister.
“All efforts to resolve conflicts are welcome, but that African problems should be resolved by Africans,” Téte António told reporters on Thursday in Luanda adding that President João Lourenço was surprised by Qatar’s initiative to bring together Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame, in Doha.
Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group Programmes Director for Great Lakes region, said the Doha meeting may achieve little on the ground.
“The meeting was quite interesting on how they have kept it secret. I don’t think there is any analyst on the conflict who knew of it. But the questions it raises are quite striking because the statement was very bland,” he told The EastAfrican.
“It called for ceasefire, but this is not the first time they have agreed on a ceasefire. It echoes a ceasefire they agreed on last year but wasn’t upheld. I don’t anticipate it will change a lot on the ground.
Qatar, he added, has a lot of influence especially on Kagame and it has greater importance to Kigali especially at this time as Western countries impose sanctions on the East African country.
“It is unclear whether Angolans were aware or even consulted about this meeting (in Doha). We have to ask whether this is helpful if it will be uncoordinated. But it is also important to say that African mediation efforts have been dispersed and weak.”
For Rwanda, however, the US threat of more sanctions meant its exports could be curtailed and its access to lenders limited until it toes the line.
That threat, sources said, would have been too heavy for Rwanda which is still reeling from a series of other targeted sanctions. The US had already sanctioned Rwanda’s Minister of State for Regional Integration James Kabarebe, a former army chief, for his alleged role in the conflict in the eastern Congo. It also sanctioned Lawrence Kanyuka, the M23’s spokesman, as well as two companies he controls in Britain and France.
A State Department official told The EastAfrican, Washington would not shy away from employing “a variety of tools at our disposal” to ensure violators are tamed. The official refused to discuss further punitive measures facing Rwanda.
This week, the European Union sanctioned, among others, M23 political leader Bertrand Bisimwa, the governor installed by the rebels in North Kivu, Erasto Bahati, and General Major Ruki Karusisi, former commander of the Rwandan army’s special force.
The sanctions also affected Françis Kamanzi, CEO of Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board and the only gold refinery in Rwanda, Gasabo gold refinery in Rwanda, accused of using the armed conflict, instability and insecurity in the DRC to illegally exploit gold and natural resources.
The decision was protested in Kigali but celebrated in Kinshasa.
“The government of the DRC welcomes the sanctions imposed by the EU on the Gasabo gold refinery. These sanctions are the first step in the fight against Rwanda’s plundering of the DRC’s mineral wealth,” the Congolese government said in a statement on March 17.
“The government of the DRC will continue to work with the international community to implement an embargo on minerals illegally extracted in the DRC and exported by Rwanda, to suspend Rwanda’s contribution to UN peacekeeping forces and to impose greater transparency on arms transfers to Rwanda with a view to obtaining the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of its troops from Congolese territory.” Rwanda’s Foreign ministry said the sanctions would not resolve the conflict in the DR Congo, terming them “unjustified and unfounded.”
“Punitive measures, including sanctions, make no contribution toward long-term security, peace and stability for all the countries of the Great Lakes region,” Rwanda’s Foreign ministry responded in a statement.
Beyond their war of words Rwanda wriggled out of attachment to the M23, something that could potentially depict Kigali as not in control of the M23 group.
In Doha, Kigali insisted that Kinshasa has to deal with the FDLR rebel group while also maintaining that only peaceful solution can come from direct talks between Kinshasa and the M23.
“The leaders also discussed the urgent need for direct political dialogue with AFC/M23 as key to addressing the root causes of the conflict in Eastern DRC,” a dispatch from the Rwandan Presidency said on March 19.
“President Kagame expressed his belief that with all parties working together, things can move forward faster.”
Both presidencies in Kigali and Kinshasa said they had reiterated support from the EAC-SADC process as the primary mechanism to get a sustainable solution in the DRC conflict. But it was clear Qatar’s influence on both leaders had pushed the meeting to take place.
Kinshasa said Doha’s “good relations of cooperation and friendship with the two countries” was crucial to the process.
“The modalities for implementing what has been agreed will be specified in the coming days within the framework of the achievements of the coming days.”
Qatar’s influence in Africa, generally, and the eastern Africa region has been rising. A bulletin from the Qatari Foreign ministry says Doha has been advancing “relations and strategic partnership with the African nations at all levels” …in the areas of “preventive diplomacy, mediation in conflict settlement and peace-making in Africa.”
Dr Majed Al Ansari, Qatar Foreign ministry spokesperson said Qatar’s experience shows conflicts can only be solved via dialogue.
“The State of Qatar reaffirms that dialogue is the best way to resolve conflicts between countries and promote peace and stability,” he said on Thursday.
“It expresses its appreciation to His Excellency President Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda, and His Excellency President Felix Tshisekedi, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo, for the friendly meeting held in Doha today, hoping that direct dialogue and constructive discussions will continue to achieve a bright future for the region.”
Qatar’s mediation
Qataris had tried mediating conflicts in Sudan, Chad, Somalia, and the border dispute between Djibouti and Eritrea, along with its humanitarian and development efforts in many African nations, according to the bulletin. In some of those areas, they were elbowed by other Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In November 2023 it sent $20 million to support the ‘Grain from Ukraine’ programme in support of African countries, pledged $12 million in humanitarian aid for the Horn of Africa region to counter famine and food insecurity challenges.
The Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) has financed projects in Somalia in collaboration with the UK and US governments. Overall, it sent $60 million to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) over last year. With Rwanda, it is constructing a major airport outside Kigali, which could boost connectivity.
On the ground, however, the posture of M23 and the Congolese government showed Qatar could just struggle as well. President Tshisekedi said the M23’s “refusal confirms to national and international public opinion that these violent activists are puppets waiting to receive orders to act.”
“In these conditions, I don’t see how we can build something solid and genuine with these infidels. So, it was better to talk to their mentor.”
Since the resurgence of the M23 in 2021, the rebel movement has always called for direct dialogue with the Congolese authorities to ‘resolve the root causes of the Congolese crisis.’ This basic demand has remained unchanged even after the rebels’ military victories over the Congolese army.
Rwanda, which is also negotiating with the DRC through the Luanda process, had made the need for direct dialogue between the M23 and the Congolese government a condition before it would sign any peace agreement.
On the other hand, Congolese authorities had sworn ‘never’ to open any direct negotiations with the M23.
However, Kinshasa’s recent lobbying for Rwanda to be whipped has been undone by other losses, such as the withdrawal of the SADC Mission in Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) troops.
Experts say Kinshasa now has little room not to hold dialogue.
“President Tshisekedi has no option apart from negotiating with Kagame. That is the option on the table, and I think the meeting in Doha, he had already foreseen the SADC troops going away,” said Dr Kizito Sabala, Peace and security expert and lecturer at the University of Nairobi.
“And while the meeting in Doha is good for both Kagame and Tshisekedi, it seems to me that Tshisekedi needed that meeting more than Kagame.”
President Tshisekedi had requested for SADC troops after declining the East African Community Regional Force in 2023. South Africa, Tanzania, Malawi and Burundi troops who formed SAMIDRC, were then deployed to eastern DRC in late 2023, replacing the EACRF which had been deployed in late 2022 under the umbrella of the EAC.
But even before the arrival of the EACRF, DRC pushed for the complete withdrawal of the UN Organisation Stabilisation Mission in DRC (MONUSCO) by the end of 2024. He turned around and asked them to stay, after running into more war.
“The M23 are being supported by Kagame, and they are making progress on the ground. The troops that were supposed to forestall that advancement are those troops that have now left. The DRC military has no capacity to stop the M23 and therefore it leaves Tshisekedi in a very precarious position that if he doesn’t negotiate the M23 could move up to Kinshasa,” explained Dr Sabala.
“So it is in his interest that the negotiations begin to take place so that the M23 can also halt their advancement and capture more territories.”
A joint meeting of EAC and SADC held on 17th March 2025, in Harare, Zimbabwe, called for ceasefire, again, and the re-opening of Goma Airport which is currently under the mandate of M23. These leaders had made the same call on February 7 and 8.
“The situation in eastern Congo is complicated. Tshisekedi’s decision to have the EACRF withdrawn was partly because he viewed the EAC as biased towards Kagame. And now that all the peace keeping troops have been withdrawn, his strategy is to seek global support,” said Dr Benson Musila, a political science lecturer at Riara University, Nairobi.
“However, it is unlikely that the M23 will support the process in eastern Congo given the insistence by DRC that they have Kigali’s backing.”
The DRC appears to be turning to the US in its latest efforts to find an ally in its fight against advancing M23 rebels. Kinshasa and Washington have been discussing a mineral exploitation deal, which Congolese officials think could guarantee peace and security in eastern Congo.
But just how this will affect African-led mediations is uncertain. New AU Commission Chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf commended the Doha meeting and the two countries “for their commitment to dialogue” and urged all parties to “maintain the momentum”. And he said that meeting “complement ongoing regional mechanisms.
“By the time EAC and SADC organise themselves, we shall have a different scenario in eastern DRC. Their peace efforts are unlikely to work,” Dr Sabala warned.
