NUP’s Elias Nalukoola Triumphs in Kawempe North By-Election Amid Violence and Voter Suppression Claims

The Kawempe North by-election on March 13, 2025, was a significant event in Uganda's political landscape, reflecting the dynamics between the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP).

Background

The by-election was necessitated by the passing of Muhammad Ssegirinya, the incumbent Member of Parliament for Kawempe North and a prominent NUP member, in January 2025. Ssegirinya had secured the seat in the 2021 general elections with a substantial majority, establishing Kawempe North as a stronghold for the opposition. His death led to a competitive race to fill the vacant position, attracting ten candidates from various political affiliations and independent backgrounds.

Campaigns

The campaign period was marked by heightened activity and tension. NUP's candidate, Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola, leveraged the party's grassroots support and received endorsements from key figures, including party leader Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine). Their campaign emphasized continuity and resistance against perceived government overreach. In contrast, the NRM's candidate, Faridah Nambi, received direct support from President Yoweri Museveni, who campaigned personally in Kawempe North—a move indicating the ruling party's determination to regain influence in urban areas. Other candidates, such as Sadat Mukiibi of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and Henry Kasacca Mubiru of the Democratic Party (DP), struggled to gain significant traction amid the dominant NUP-NRM rivalry.

Election Day

On March 13, 2025, voting commenced across Kawempe North's 197 polling stations under a heavy security presence. The Electoral Commission (EC), led by Justice Simon Byabakama, ensured that polling materials arrived on time, although some stations experienced delays, causing suspicion among voters. Polling stations opened at 7:00 AM and closed at 4:00 PM, with provisions for those still in line to cast their votes. Nalukoola cast his ballot at the Church of Uganda polling station, receiving cheers from supporters, while Nambi voted under tight security.

The day was marred by incidents of violence and logistical challenges. Residents remained at polling stations to monitor the process, defying police orders to disperse, amid allegations of pre-ticked ballots and voter suppression. Journalists faced assaults from security personnel, with equipment confiscated and some requiring hospitalization—actions later condemned by the Uganda People's Defense Forces (UPDF).

Results

The official results, announced on March 14, 2025, by Returning Officer Makabayi Henry at Makerere University's School of Public Health Auditorium, confirmed Nalukoola's victory with 17,764 votes out of 27,596 valid ballots cast. Nambi secured 8,593 votes, while other candidates received minimal support—Hanifah Karadi (381 votes), Sadat Mukiibi (239 votes), and Moses Nsereko (32 votes), among others. With 199,064 registered voters, the turnout of approximately 13.9% was notably low, a sharp decline from the over 55,000 votes cast in 2021, raising concerns about voter apathy or disenfranchisement.

Key Events and Issues

The by-election highlighted several critical issues:

• Electoral Violence: Reports of violence surfaced early, with NUP alleging that security forces targeted their supporters with arrests and beatings. The NRM countered with claims of voter intimidation by opposition factions, setting a contentious tone that carried into election day.
• Press Freedom: Journalists faced assaults from security personnel, with equipment confiscated and some requiring hospitalization—actions later condemned by the Uganda People's Defense Forces (UPDF).
• Allegations of Electoral Malpractice: Concerns about delayed materials and potential vote rigging further eroded trust in the process, though the EC maintained its integrity.
• Low Voter Turnout: The significant drop in voter turnout compared to previous elections raised questions about democratic engagement and potential disenfranchisement.

Political Context

Kawempe North's by-election unfolded against Uganda's broader political backdrop, where the NRM, in power since 1986 under Museveni, faces growing urban resistance from NUP. The constituency's history as an opposition bastion—evidenced by Ssegirinya's 2021 sweep—made it a symbolic battleground. NUP's dominance persisted, but the NRM's improved showing (from 6,946 votes in 2021 to 8,593 in 2025) hinted at incremental gains, possibly tied to government programs like the Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga.

The election also exposed opposition fragmentation, with multiple candidates diluting potential anti-NRM votes. For the ruling party, it was a chance to test strategies for 2026, while NUP aimed to solidify its urban grip—a dynamic that analysts see as a preview of future contests.

Aftermath

In his victory speech, Nalukoola framed the win as a tribute to Ssegirinya and a rebuke of oppression, pledging to tackle local issues like drainage and unemployment. NUP celebrated the result as proof of "people power," though the 57% drop in votes from 2021 tempered their triumph. The NRM, despite its loss, touted Nambi's performance as progress, with Museveni and Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja claiming a strategic win in curbing NUP's momentum.

The aftermath saw calls for electoral reform grow louder. Parliament criticized security excesses, with MPs like Theodore Ssekikubo questioning JATT’s role in civilian elections. Civil society urged investigations into violence and voter suppression, while the low turnout sparked debate about democratic engagement. As Uganda eyes 2026, Kawempe North’s by-election stands as both a warning and a lesson—of resilience, repression, and the fragile state of its electoral democracy.